Treatment of uncertainties in EC4MACS

Uncertainties in scientific model calculations are of crucial importance when using model results for policy advice. EC4MACS has conducted a systematic approach to screen the various types of uncertainties, to develop approaches that minimize the impacts of uncertainties, and to derive robust policy conclusions.

Step 1: Assessment of uncertainties of the model elements

In a first step, all modelling teams have assessed to key uncertainties of their tools and documented them in extensive reports:

• FASOM
• COPERT/TREMOVE
• CAPRI
• CHIMERE
• IMPACTS
• ALPHA
• PRIMES
• GEM-E3
• GAINS

Step 2: A workshop to discuss how these uncertainties could be handled

Subsequently, EC4MACS organized together with the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling of the LRTAP Convention a joint workshop on uncertainty treatment (IIASA, November 3-4, 2010), which reviewed the various uncertainties and discussed their implications on the robustness of policy conclusions.

• Workshop Agenda
• Workshop Participants
• Chair's report

The Workshop Report communicated the key findings to the negotiators of the Gothenburg Protocol under the LRTAP Convention.

Step 3: A synthesis report suggesting a possible way for treatment of the final model results

Finally, the EC4MACS team has produced a summary report that puts together the key uncertainties of the various models and proposes an approach that would maximize the robustness of policy conclusions.

• Download report