Treatment of uncertainties in EC4MACS

A systematic approach to derive robust policy conclusions

Uncertainties in scientific model calculations are of crucial importance when using model results for policy advice. EC4MACS has conducted a systematic approach to screen the various types of uncertainties, to develop approaches that minimize the impacts of uncertainties, and to derive robust policy conclusions.

Step 1: Assessment of uncertainties of the model elements

In a first step, all modelling teams have assessed to key uncertainties of their tools and documented them in extensive reports:

Step 2: A workshop to discuss how these uncertainties could be handled

Subsequently, EC4MACS organized together with the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling of the LRTAP Convention a joint workshop on uncertainty treatment (IIASA, November 3-4, 2010), which reviewed the various uncertainties and discussed their implications on the robustness of policy conclusions.

The Workshop Report communicated the key findings to the negotiators of the Gothenburg Protocol under the LRTAP Convention.

  • Step 3: A synthesis report suggesting a possible way for treatment of the final model results

  • Finally, the EC4MACS team has produced a summary report that puts together the key uncertainties of the various models and proposes an approach that would maximize the robustness of policy conclusions.